Trends and Burden of Autism Spectrum Disorder in BRICS Countries: A Global Burden of Disease Analysis from 1990 to 2021

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a significant neurodevelopmental condition affecting social interaction and communication, with a global prevalence of 1 in 127 individuals. This study aims to update the understanding of ASD burden in BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates) using data from 1990 to 2021. Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database were analyzed. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify trends and changes in ASD metrics over time. Decomposition analysis quantified the impact of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes on DALYs. Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis forecasted future trends in prevalence up to 2030. From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized prevalence (ASPR) of ASD in BRICS countries increased from 677.18 to 708.47 per 100,000, while age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDALYR) rose from 126.68 to 132.84 per 100,000. Decomposition analysis showed that population growth was the main driver of increased DALYs, with aging and epidemiological changes significantly impacting Russia and China. Future trends predicted by BAPC model indicated varied trajectories, with China, South Africa, Ethiopia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia still on the rise. The findings highlight the growing burden of ASD in BRICS countries, emphasizing the need for tailored public health interventions and improved diagnostic practices. The study underscores the importance of addressing the social and economic factors influencing ASD prevalence and DALYs. Future research should focus on understanding the underlying causes and developing effective support strategies for individuals with ASD and their families.