Burden and Trends of Liver-Related Cancers, 1990–2021: A Comparative Analysis of China, Korea, Japan,the United Kingdom , and the United States

Background The burden of common cancer diseases of the liver-related cancers, including liver cancer (LC),pancreatic cancer (PC) and gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GC). With its high prevalence and mortality rates, it has a serious impact on quality of life and increases the burden on the healthcare system. Despite the high disease burden of liver-related cancers, they remain under-recognized in global health policy. This study examined epidemiologic trends in liver-related cancers in China, Korea, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom from 1990 to 2021, highlighting regional differences and projecting future burdens. Methods This study used the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data to analyze the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLD) of liver-related cancers. A Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) model was applied to project future trends through 2050. In addition, country-specific variance analysis and sensitivity analysis were performed to test the robustness of the model to input data quality. Results In 2021, China reported the highest number of new cases for GC (1,119), LC (11,860), and PC (2,821), with males affected more than females. The United States, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom followed. GC and PC incidence rose in China but fell in Japan and Korea; LC decreased in China but increased markedly in the U.S. Projections from 2022 to 2025 suggest China will continue to have the highest absolute burden, the U.S. will report high DALYs due to its population size, Japan and Korea will maintain moderate yet significant age-standardized rates (ASRs), and the U.K. will see a slight rise in deaths. Conclusion Hepatobiliary cancers remain a major public health issue in all five countries, with burden influenced by age, gender, and demographic structure. China faces high incidence and absolute burden, the U.S. carries substantial DALYs due to population size, Japan and Korea show intermediate ASRs with variable trends, and the U.K. experiences gradual increases in mortality. Locally adapted health policies and targeted interventions are essential. Future studies should incorporate socioeconomic, behavioral, and health system factors to improve cancer control strategies.