Spatiotemporal distribution and environmental infuences of brucellosis in Zibo City, Shandong, China

Background This study was to describe the spatiotemporal distribution of brucellosis and to identify its environmental influencing factors and potential high-risk areas in Zibo City.Methods Data on the brucellosis incidence from 2006 to 2024 were collected, Spatiotemporal scan statistics were used to identify the time and area of brucellosis clustering, The maximum entropy model was used to analyse environmental influences and predict high-risk areas.Results From 2006 to 2024, a total of 2176 cases of brucellosis were reported in Zibo. The number of brucellosis cases increased yearly, with a peak incidence from April to June each year. Spatiotemporal scan statistics showed the existence of one most likely cluster and four secondary likely clusters in Zibo. The MaxEnt model showed that Yearly average evaporation yearly average sunshine duration gross domestic product and yearly average relative humidity were the key factors influencing the occurrence of brucellosis. The predicted risk map showed that the area of high prevalence was 940 km², accounting for 15.76% of the total area of the city.Conclusion The spatiotemporal distribution of brucellosis was heterogeneous and influenced by multidimensional environmental factors, This should be considered as a basis for delineating brucellosis risk areas and developing brucellosis prevention and control measures.