Climate-driven losses in soybean suitability threaten iron and zinc supply for millions in the Global South

Recent studies have documented the growing impact of climate change on global agriculture. Yet, the nutritional impacts of these changes remain largely overlooked, especially for key crops like soybeans, one of the world’s richest plant sources of iron and zinc, nutrients for which over a billion people remain at risk of deficiency. Here, drawing on advances in spatial modelling and nutrient mapping, we present the first global assessment showing that projected climate-driven declines in soybean suitability by 2050 will substantially reduce iron and zinc supply for millions of people in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, where deficiencies are already widespread. In Southern Africa alone, lost soybean-derived nutrients correspond to the annual requirements of more than six million people for iron and four million for zinc. By contrast, gains accrue mostly in higher-income temperate regions, where deficiency burdens are generally lower. These findings highlight a new frontier in climate adaptation: agricultural strategies must incorporate a nutrition lens, and global nutrition initiatives must integrate climate foresight.